Our man in Italy gazes into his crystal ball and sees that the internet without the US would be like… well, it would be exactly like the internet without the US.
A couple weeks ago, commenting on a call to the Dutch government to reduce its dependence on US software companies, Amazon replied that its customers have “full control over where they locate their data, how it is encrypted, and who can access it,” which is basically the same promise Microsoft makes with its EU Data Boundary.
Problem is, the current US administration, the same that should supervise Microsoft and Amazon, is making pretty clear (just ask Greenland or Panama) that they intend to just get what they want, no matter where it is located. So, how could anybody be sure that those companies would or could respect their commitments?
Together with Eurostack, the EU Chips Act 2.0, and proposals for a sovereign and democratic digitization of Europe, that news from the Netherlands got my brain stuck on the following question:
What if, faced with Europe’s quickly increasing intolerance of its own dependence on US digital products and services, the current US administration reacted threatening to cut Europe off the internet?
Obviously, the only internet “things” the US government and companies could completely block in Europe are US-controlled internet software services, that is everything from DNS, to Google, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and similar services, plus AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, along with other, more relevant stuff I will mention shortly.
Raw physical infrastructure is different. Much internet traffic between Europe and the rest of the world goes through US-controlled cables and routers, while billions of European files and thousands of websites are hosted inside US-based data centers. A blockade on those infrastructures would certainly have far from negligible impacts that everybody in Europe would notice.
This said, what would happen if the US really attempted such a move?
If the US Did Cut Europe Off the Internet…
To begin with, I suspect US tech stocks would fall much lower and faster than US reputation as a NATO member, and so would all the pensions funds on both sides of the pond that rely on those stocks. Besides, one look at TikTok’s success in Europe is enough to assume that Chinese companies could fill the void so quickly as to make the loss for US companies irreversible.
This alone seems enough of a reason why the White House and Mar-a-Lago risk being cut off the internet much more than Europe, from their very own real constituents (now, there’s an idea…).
And still… what if that blockade did happen? Here are the first wild speculations and daydreaming that crossed my mind, with encouragements to add yours.
Negative effects
- No more access in Europe to the DNS Root Zone files, which are managed in California. I don’t know enough about DNS to know what such a block would cause, but I assume the consequences, while not permanent, wouldn’t be negligible. Feel encouraged to correct me.
- Every European bank and citizen may find itself without money, exactly like Russian banks in 2022.
- The International Criminal Court could be cut off too.
- EU journalists couldn’t control rulers’ governments like US ones. I mean, how could they, without an account on the US-based Signal messaging service?
Positive effects
- Scarcity of free online storage and higher connectivity costs would drive the healthiest mental decluttering ever across the continent. How many attention-stealing pictures and videos would be recognized as unworthy of preservation, if the cost of doing so finally became noticeable? How much sleep would be recovevered, and how many hours would still be spent watching death online? Other positive effects of the same rightsizing may include:
- Forcing every European to get unfiltered news the right way, that is from RSS.
- Starving the AI crawlers of FOSS projects that right now force blocks on entire countries.
- European families would discover again, after doing so when Covid pushed schooling online, that their cherished “digital natives” are actually digital ignoramus, who are being more hurt than blessed from being saddled as early as possible with (largely non-European) electronic tags… I mean, smartphones.
- Carrying what I called a “Brain Drain, Done Right” to the next level, from simple scrambles to help researchers escape Trump to suggestions that the EU could lure “not just American researchers, but American universities themselves.”
And This Isn’t Even the Real Big Picture
As big as they are, high-tech and digital issues are just one part of the really big picture.
Some say that Trump and Russia are pushing the EU toward a “Hamiltonian moment,” where common debt helps build greater federalism. Personally, I wouldn’t mind that.
Indeed, I think that (Western) European states should form one federated state. To help this America could afford to spend a lot, because it would get something successful, strong, and sturdy. Sadly, most European politicians react throwing up their hands in fright and hopelessness.
No, I just lied. The previous paragraph isn’t mine: it’s what US President Dwight D. Eisenhower wrote in 1951, when (my paraphrase) “Washington demanded just what Donald Trump is actively hostile to now.”
Marco Fioretti is an aspiring polymath and idealist without illusions based in Rome, Italy. Marco met Linux, Free as in Freedom Software, and the Web pre-1.0 back in the ’90s while working as an ASIC/FPGA designer in Italy, Sweden, and Silicon Valley. This led to tech writing, including but not limited to hundreds of Free/Open Source tutorials. Over time, this odd combination of experiences has made Marco think way too much about the intersection of tech, ethics, and common sense, turning him into an independent scholar of “Human/digital studies” who yearns for a world with less, but much better, much more open and much more sensible tech than we have today.
This is a very interesting thought experiment. This is imho relevant in all sorts of areas. E.g. there is a very large discussion around the kill switch for F-35 fighter jets, so military use of products made in the US in general. I think you couldn’t even operate this jet without the backend feeding it data. The same goes for public administration (which you did not mention) where microsoft has a 96% (desktop) and 69% (server) market share in Germany alone. My guess is that everything would grind to a halt (even vacuum cleaners are dependent on AWS nowadays). Within days there would be a significant economic crisis, where wages could not get paid, machines can’t produce, supply chains would break.
Not all of the DNS root servers are in the US. There are enough of them elsewhere to make sure the DNS would continue to work. That’s exactly why the DNS was set up that way. Some ‘intelligent switching’ may be required if the orange ape broke things on purpose, but there are enough people/organisations around the world to make that happen.
The SWIFT financial system isn’t ‘owned’ by the US either, but I’m sure the US could find a way to sabotage its functioning, at least initially. How long it would take to work around that I have no idea. I’m convinced a way would be found though. In the end the US would probably suffer more, just like it will suffer more from the deranged one’s tariffs..
The DNS root servers are located in many countries around the world, so there would be no immediate consequences or (in my estimation) even long-term consequences.
While ICANN is headquartered in Los Angeles, they have regional offices around the world and “engagement offices” also distributed around the world.
The Internet was designed to work if major portions are unavailable, for any reason.
I have a much better “good outcome” that might from the USA’s actions, which I wrote about in an upcoming Linux Pro Magazine “Doghouse” column.
What if all non-USA based makers of laptops and desktops only installed GNU/Linux and Free Software on the systems instead of Microsoft? That would save the world economy approximately 18 Billion USD a year from operating system licenses alone, plus give the countries of the world (even the USA) an easily inspected and audited system. It would lower the cost of the laptops and desktops by about 200 USD pre-tariff cost, 250 USD post-tariff cost (assuming a 25% tariff) and about 260 USD if the laptop or desktop was hit with state sales tax or VAT (as many are in the USA).
Purchasers of these GNU/Linux based systems would be free to install Microsoft products if they wish, just as GNU/Linux users have been doing for years, but without having to pay for software they were not going to use.
The most important questions for the EU aristocracy would likely be: ‘How will this impact the importation of last sub-Saharan African , and the last Pakistani, into Europe?,’ and ‘How will this disrupt the flow of welfare funds from Germany to eastern Europe, Italy, and Greece?’
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I think the article is total fear mongering. The US is not going to shut down the Internet.